what is next for Indian

New Delhi has always been the political Mecca for Nepal .As we all know the incumbent Prime minister had his political training in India . But the land slide victory of Maoist Party in Nepal has confused all the political gurus and pundits in both Nepal and neighbouring India. SO how will Moaist coming to power will effect India and its Foreign Policy???

I found a interesting article by Arvinda Deo former ambassador to Nepal from India :

The Maoists are likely to emerge as the single largest party when the final count comes in, but they might decide to opt for a coalition with one, if not both, of the larger parties in the interests of a stable government and also to cobble together a government of national consensus which would facilitate the task of drafting a new constitution for the country.

In the words of Kanak Mani Dixit, editor of Himal magazine and a highly respected Nepali commentator on South Asian issues: “Nepali politics will never be the same again. To begin with, on the Nepali monarchy, if the Maoists do not have other plans and do work with the mainstream-left Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and the Nepali Congress (NC), the collective decision to establish a ‘Federal Republic of Nepal’ will be irreversible.”

What would be the likely contours of the new government’s policy? The Maoists have succeeded in carrying out their revolutionary agenda and are now in a position to mould the destiny of Nepal. In the course of their struggle, the Maoists had made several fiery statements defining their vision of a new Nepal — a republican, federal and secular democratic state. Many Indian commentators have voiced their apprehensions that Nepal’s relations with India might undergo a tectonic shift. First indications from the Maoists supremo Prachanda are that, to a great extent, it would be business as usual.

Talking to an Indian journalist on Sunday, Prachanda recalled that Nepal has a “historical relationship with India, with which it shares open borders”. “It is very important to have good relations with India. We will further develop our close ties with India,” he said. “We will maintain equal distance from India and China in political terms.” Our own reaction as articulated so far also suggests that India will be ready to continue its traditional policy of multi-faceted cooperation with the government in Kathmandu.

The victory of the Maoists has surprised many analysts of Nepali politics in Kathmandu. First, the turnout: an impressive 67 per cent. That means two out of three voters exercised their right to vote. Several political stalwarts were knocked down by the voters. The Rashtriya Prajatantra Party has been wiped out of the political landscape. Madhav Nepal, general secretary of Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), also lost, along with five members of the party’s central committee. The story of the Nepali Congress is a little different. Prime Minister G.P. Koirala’s daughter Sujata and nephew Shekhar were defeated as was the incumbent home minister, K.P. Sitaula.

Some Indian analysts who have followed very closely the twists and turns in Nepal’s Maoist struggle are not sanguine about the future course of Indo-Nepal relations. They figure that the course is likely to be bumpy. Elated by their victory in their armed struggle in Nepal, the Maoists might act as catalysts for their fellow revolutionaries in India and elsewhere (specifically in Bhutan). The agitation for Gorkhaland might receive a new impetus. Revanchist demands would be put forward to redefine Indo-Nepal relations, which might include not only the 1950 treaty but even the Treaty of Sugawlee (1815). The best course for Indian policy-makers would be to watch every step the new dispensation in Kathmandu takes and react with dignity and polite firmness.

Given Nepal’s geopolitical situation, it is inevitable that its destiny should be intricately, one could even say organically, linked with India’s. What is important to remember is that such linkage is mutual. Policy-makers in each country need to realise that they cannot act in a manner which the other side would regard as adverse to its vital security concerns and interests. For this a continuing dialogue is necessary at the highest political level and, to achieve maximum success, such interaction must maintain a high measure of confidentiality.

Although India has always expressed interest in assisting Nepal to harness its immense water resources, little has been achieved on the ground since 1964. This is because of different perceptions at the technical bureaucratic level and even more so at the political level. Policy-makers in India must remember at all times that India cannot remain a land of prosperity if its neighbours remain in economic distress. India’s neighbours have a rapidly expanding population and by 2050 Nepal’s population is likely to exceed 60 million people from it present 26-27 million. The Indo-Nepal border is open and easily accessible on either side in the southern stretches. Economic migrants will flood India in the not too distant future unless India ensures that there is “real” economic development on the Nepal side of the border.

The Maoists had made brave assertions about economic policies in their original 40-point agenda but the compulsions of managing the state and ensuring effective governance will soon bring Nepal’s new rulers face to face with realities. It is then that India would need to be sagacious rather than clever in handling Nepali demands. That would be the single most challenge before the Indian establishment.