Monday, May 18, 2015

5 things among other initiative government can do to bounce back Nepali Economy… I think






·         Launching Government startup fund – organize business plan competition for pre fab housing protype, future natural disaster prevention, mitigation  app or technology. Provide seed capital to top 5….


·         Legalize marijuana and encourage ganja puffing tourists. Will increase tax revenue and boost tourism. If stoned already no stone can do harm... :-)

here is a proof 


·         Sovereign Credit Rating – economic cost of earthquake estimated around 50% of the GDP.  Thats about US 10BN. Government can raise domestically about 3%- 5% of GDP (1BN) without raising any eye brows of IMF. Rest need to be financed through external source. To raise international debt a proper sovereign rating from credit rating agencies could be useful. Shadow rating (CCC+) we currently follow does not take into factor like positive impact remittances in rating. Sovereign Rating also helps credit appraisal of big scale hydro projects & to calculate actual country risk premium……..Nepal is all over the news around the world, get cash it

·         Housing mortgage interest expense deductible from Income tax: No doubt that housing market and real estate has suffered. To buttress rebuilding houses, government could allow deducting interest expense paid for mortgage from Income tax.



Thursday, May 7, 2015

5/6/2015 - Nepal economic situation and trend

As the rescue work is all most done, relief works are under-way, it looks like relief effort will wind  down in couple of weeks....Now the turn comes for RECONSTRUCTION..Before I start  writing my thoughts on RECONSTRUCTION, I would go back in time and highlight few macroeconomic figures and trends in  Nepal before the devastating earthquake

  • Nepal’s economy grew by an estimated 5.2% in fiscal year (FY) 2014 - See more at:  Source: http://blogs.adb.org/blog/adb-s-initial-analysis-economic-impact-nepal-earthquake#sthash.tslN7qRq.dpuf
  • Balance of payment  SURPLUS till first half of 2015 was USD 349.2 MN (ADB) 
  • Gross foreign exchange reserves till mid jan 2015 was USD 7.1 BN
  • Nepal had signed PTA with India 
  • Nepal has signed PDA with couple of hydro projects 
  • International Banks including Societe Generale was in Nepal for appraisal for a hydro project 
  • Total Market cap for stock market was about USD  9 + BN  (ADB)
  • FDI commitments increase was in three digits percentage 
  • Total government expenditure about NPR 618 BIllion or 28% of the GDP (ADB)
  • Inflation : 9% (ADB)
  • Average base rate of commercial Bank : 8.75% (ADB)
  • Remittances = $ 5.5 billion or 28.2 % of GDP  (ABD)
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